السلام عايكم ورحمة الله وابركتحه

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

NEWS ARCHIVED ~ MORE STORIES OF GOLD WERE PUBLISHED..

The rational value of gold

An employee from South Korean metal refiner LS-Nikko displays a 12.5 kg gold bar at an exhibition centre in Goyang, northwest of Seoul, on September 30, 2010. Gold prices have soared in South Korea with the 12.5 kg gold bar selling at about 600 million won (US$527).Picture: AFP

Sunday, October 3, 2010

IT HAS never been easy to have a rational conversation about the value of gold. Lately, with gold prices up more than 300 per cent over the last decade, it is harder than ever. Just last December, fellow economists Martin Feldstein and Nouriel Roubini each penned Op-Eds bravely questioning bullish market sentiment, sensibly pointing out golds risks.

Wouldn't you know it? Since their articles appeared, the price of gold has moved up still further. Gold prices even hit a record-high US$1,300 recently. Last December, many gold bugs were arguing that the price was inevitably headed for US$2,000. Now, emboldened by continuing appreciation, some are suggesting that gold could be headed even higher than that.

One successful gold investor recently explained to me that stock prices languished for a more than a decade before the Dow Jones index crossed the 1,000 mark in the early 1980s. Since then, the index has climbed above 10,000. Now that gold has crossed the magic $1,000 barrier, why can't it increase ten-fold, too?

Admittedly, getting to a much higher price for gold is not quite the leap of imagination that it seems. After adjusting for inflation, today's price is nowhere near the all-time high of January 1980. Back then, gold hit US$850, or well over US$2,000 in today's dollars. But January 1980 was arguably a freak peak during a period of heightened geo-political instability. At US$1,300, today's price is probably more than double very long-term, inflation-adjusted, average gold prices. So what could justify another huge increase in gold prices from here?

One answer, of course, is a complete collapse of the US dollar. With soaring deficits, and a rudderless fiscal policy, one does wonder whether a populist administration might recklessly turn to the printing press. And if you are really worried about that, gold might indeed be the most reliable hedge.

Sure, some might argue that inflation-indexed bonds offer a better and more direct inflation hedge than gold. But gold bugs are right to worry about whether the government will honour its commitments under more extreme circumstances. In fact, as Carmen Reinhart and I discuss in our recent book on the history of financial crises, This Time is Different, cash-strapped governments will often forcibly convert indexed debt to non-indexed debt, precisely so that its value might be inflated away. Even the United States abrogated indexation clauses in bond contracts during the Great Depression of the 1930s. So it can happen anywhere.

Even so, the fact that very high inflation is possible does not make it probable, so one should be cautious in arguing that higher gold prices are being driven by inflation expectations. Some have argued instead that gold's long upward march has been partly driven by the development of new financial instruments that make it easier to trade and speculate in gold.

There is probably some slight truth and also a certain degree of irony to this argument. After all, medieval alchemists engaged in what we now consider an absurd search for ways to transform base metals into gold. Wouldn't it be paradoxical, then, if financial alchemy could make an ingot of gold worth dramatically more?

In my view, the most powerful argument to justify today's high price of gold is the dramatic emergence of Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East into the global economy. As legions of new consumers gain purchasing power, demand inevitably rises, driving up the price of scarce commodities.

At the same time, emerging-market central banks need to accumulate gold reserves, which they still hold in far lower proportion than do rich-country central banks. With the euro looking less appetising as a diversification play away from the dollar, gold's appeal has naturally grown.

So, yes, there are solid fundamentals that arguably support today's higher gold price, although it is far more debatable whether and to what extent they will continue to support higher prices in the future.

Indeed, another critical fundamental factor that has been sustaining high gold prices might prove far more ephemeral than globalisation.

Gold prices are extremely sensitive to global interest-rate movements. After all, gold pays no interest and even costs something to store. Today, with interest rates near or at record lows in many countries, it is relatively cheap to speculate in gold instead of investing in bonds. But if real interest rates rise significantly, as well they might someday, gold prices could plummet.

Most economic research suggests that gold prices are very difficult to predict over the short to medium term, with the odds of gains and losses being roughly in balance. It is therefore dangerous to extrapolate from short-term trends. Yes, gold has had a great run, but so, too, did worldwide housing prices until a couple of years ago.

If you are a high-net-worth investor, a sovereign wealth fund, or a central bank, it makes perfect sense to hold a modest proportion of your portfolio in gold as a hedge against extreme events. But, despite golds heightened allure in the wake of an extraordinary run-up in its price, it remains a very risky bet for most of us.

Of course, such considerations might have little influence on prices. What was true for the alchemists of yore remains true today: gold and reason are often difficult to reconcile.

Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University, and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

Project Syndicate


source: Brunei times

M'sia cenbank nixes state's issuance of Islamic currency

A man shows the gold dinar and silver dirham currency at the launch of the Islamic coins on Thursday at the Kelantan Trade Centre. Picture: Bernama

Saturday, August 14, 2010

A MALAYSIAN state's attempt to revive use of gold and silver coins common in early Islamic societies has run afoul of the country's central bank, which said yesterday that local governments have no authority to issue their own currency.

The gold dinar and silver dirham coins provide an alternative to this Muslim-majority country's currency, the ringgit, in the northeastern state Kelantan, which is governed by the Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party, a conservative opposition group that promotes religious policies in its rule.

The gold dinar was the official currency of Muslim societies for centuries. The value of the coins used in Kelantan can fluctuate according to market prices, but officials say it remains a better alternative to currency affected by the US dollar and other foreign currency.

Kelantan authorities also say the use of such coins is encouraged in Al-Quran.

State officials have produced coins worth about US$630,000 for use at about 1,000 outlets in Kelantan's capital, said Nik Mahani Mohamad, executive director of Kelantan Golden Trade, which mints the coins.

"It's a great, great moment for Muslims," Nik Mahani said. "We are providing an alternative means for the people to trade with."

The coins came into circulation Thursday and can be purchased at various locations in Kelantan. Their worth is currently about US$180 per dinar and US$4 per dirham.

But the plan hit a snag when Malaysia's central bank said in a statement yesterday that the ringgit remained "the only currency that is the legal tender for payment of goods and services in Malaysia". The bank said it "has the sole right under the law to issue currency in Malaysia". It was not immediately clear how the bank planned to block the use of the coins for transactions.

The state government also plans to give employees the option of receiving part of their salary in this currency, as well as introduce gold bars for large investments. Muslim alms can also be paid with the coins. The Pan-Malaysian Islamic Party has governed Kelantan since 1990. Some of its policies over the years include banning gambling, nightclubs and rock concerts, and requiring Muslim female state employees to wear headscarves at work. AP

source: Brunei Times

Gold bugs, hum-bugs collide

Little shield: A worker displays a small gold bar in the Austrian Gold and Silver Separating Plant Oegussa in Vienna. Picture: Reuters

Thursday, June 4, 2009

WITH gold poised to lurch above US$1,000 an ounce for a third time, the lines are being drawn between bulls who believe a dollar-hedging rally has only just begun and bears who say four-digit bullion will be fleeting.

Fuelled by expectations of growing inflation after aggressive government pump-priming measures around the world to help prevent major economies from falling deeper into recession, spot gold prices have risen 14 per cent in two months.

Prices were up in yesterday's trading nearly one per cent at almost US$990 an ounce, within sight of the US$1,000 mark first hit in March 2008 and last touched on Feb 20. Despite briefly trading in four-digit territory on three separate days, prices have closed above the mark only once, on March 17, 2008.

Big bulls say expectations of further US dollar weakness, a recovery in stocks that has bolstered investment funds' purchasing power, and concerns about the inflation outlook should help drive the spot market into uncharted territory beyond the US$1,030.80 intraday record high touched last year.

But bears cast doubt on the sustainability of gold buying, saying the dollar's current weakness is tied to too much optimism about the economic and financial outlook and that other fundamental factors will put a lid on gains.

While gold's rally late last year and early this year was fuelled by financial insecurity and justified fears of recession, the latest leg-up has been driven by concerns that the dollar may slide further as investor risk appetite improves on growing signs that the global economy has emerged from its worst state.

Yukuji Sonoda, an adviser to Daiichi Commodities Co in Tokyo, said gold could quickly rise to a record high US$1,100 an ounce on its way to US$1,300 an ounce within the next few months.

Concerns about the risk of the US sovereign rating losing its triple-A status on a ballooning budget deficit and its future as a reserve currency have also weighed on the currency. Some say the purchasing power of the US dollar could be substantially less years from now.Reuters

source: Brunei Times

News Archive

More Indonesians buying gold bars amid uncertainty

Golden shield: A man displays gold bars at a shop in Jakarta. Demand for gold bars in Indonesia is rising as investors seek to shield themselves in a volatile economic environment. Picture: Reuters

Friday, September 26, 2008

INDONESIAN gold consumption could jump by 20 per cent this year, driven by higher demand for gold bars as investors seek to shield themselves in a volatile economic environment, an industry official said yesterday.

Indonesians traditionally buy gold jewellery in small amounts and sell it only when they need money for essentials. But now consumers are increasingly buying products intended for investment, such as gold bars or gold coins.

Gold consumption in Southeast Asia's biggest economy may climb to 60 tonnes this year, from 50 tonnes in 2007, said Iskandar Husin, executive director of the Indonesia Gold and Diamond Jewellery Association.

"Consumers who buy gold bars are not only jewellery makers but also investors who want to protect their assets."

Consumption of gold bars could account for 20 per cent of Indonesia's total gold consumption this year, up from 15 percent from 2007.

Many Indonesians view gold as a good investment, particularly since the Asian financial crisis in July 1997.Reuters

source: Brunei Times

Growth engine starting up

Weapons of gold: A store clerk pulls out a display of gold bars for sale. The IMF said its executive board on Sept 19 endorsed the sale of 403 tonnes of gold to boost its lending capacity to poor countries. 'Not so long ago, the global economy stood at the edge of the abyss,' IMF chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn said, noting the global economy appears to have recovered. Picture: AFP

Thursday, September 24, 2009

INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn yesterday said the global economy appears to be recovering from recession but the crisis was not yet over.

"Financial conditions have improved and the growth engine seems to be starting up again," Strauss-Kahn said in a speech at an international leadership meeting in New York, according to prepared remarks.

"Not so long ago, the global economy stood at the edge of the abyss," he said, but he warned "the crisis is by no means over".

The IMF managing director noted the 186-nation institution has devoted much of its resources to fighting the global financial crisis and the worst economic slump since the Great Depression.

Recalling the "outright panic" that followed the collapse of Wall Street investment bank Lehman Brothers in September 2008, Strauss-Kahn said that at the time "economic activity began a downward spiral".

Fears of another Great Depression "were not unfounded", he told the Global Creative Leadership Summit, a meeting of heads of state, business and international institution leaders and Nobel laureates.

"But today's world looks different. The crisis is not over, but I hope the worst is now behind us. We seem to have averted disaster."

The IMF chief underscored that the fund was projecting a global recovery in the "first part" of 2010.

"And as this crisis unfolded, I think we proved our worth with our realistic forecasts, both for growth and for credit losses," he said.

The IMF is scheduled to publish updated world economic forecasts on Oct 1.

"As we look at the current global financial crisis, the worst since the Great Depression, the risks were incredibly high," he said.

"The global economy could have faced a meltdown. But we pulled back from the brink, and the IMF certainly played its role."

On the eve of the Group of 20 (G20) summit in the United States, Strauss-Kahn also underlined the role of the IMF "as a policy advisor, emphasising in particular the need for common, coordinated, action".

"The IMF was among the first to pinpoint the policy responses that have now become part of conventional wisdom, especially the fiscal stimulus and the need to restructure the banking system," he said.

Strauss-Kahn highlighted his institution's promotion of economic stability and world peace.

"The stakes are particularly high in the low-income countries, where populations are especially vulnerable," he said.

He noted that the IMF was created in the aftermath of World War II to fight the economic roots of war.

"In many areas of the world, what is at stake is not only higher unemployment or lower purchasing power, but life and death itself," the former French Socialist finance minister said.

"Economic marginalisation and destitution could lead to social unrest, political instability, or a breakdown of democracy. We could see war. This is what we must avoid," he insisted, calling for "sustained help" to countries in need.

"When the nations of the world come together to address common challenges in a spirit of solidarity, we can attain a virtuous cycle of peace and prosperity, and avoid a vicious cycle of conflict and stagnation. On first glance, this might seem incidental to the role of the IMF. But it is not. It underpins our mandate." AFP

source: Brunei times

Gold sales shine in India, Indonesia

Friday, March 23, 2007

SALES of scrap gold from Indonesia have picked up this week as jewellers cash in on bullion's rise but India, the world's main consumer, shows buying interest ahead of the busy wedding season in April.

In other parts of Asia, sales of gold bars from Japanese retail investors have slowed to a trickle as they regained confidence in the precious metal which has been battered by a sell-off in equities.

Cash gold rallied to its highest level in nearly three weeks at US$664.60 an ounce yesterday on firmer crude oil and as the dollar fell after the US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 5.25 per cent.

Despite sales from Southeast Asia's main buyer, Indonesia, gold bars stayed at a premium of 10 US cents an ounce to the spot London price in Singapore, a centre for bullion trading in the region

"I definitely expect more scrap from Indonesia to come in if it goes to US$670. But I don't think the sales will cut the premiums because we still see light buying from India," said a dealer in Singapore. The wedding season and the gold-buying festival of Akshaya Trithiai begin in April in India, where gold is seen as an auspicious metal and buying rises during festivals and wedding seasons.

Gold jewellery is the common gift during religious events and forms an essential part of the dowry basket. A weaker dollar also boosts gold's appeal as an alternative investment.

Reuters


source: Brunei Times

Asia gold premiums steady at US$1,270

Thursday, September 16, 2010

PREMIUMS for gold bars defied record bullion prices to stay unchanged in Asia yesterday on tight supply and expectations of more rallies, dealers said.

Gold was steady at US$1,270 an ounce, having struck another record at US$1,274.75 on Tuesday on investment buying driven by worries about the outlook for the global economy. Gold has gained 16 per cent this year. Gold bars were quoted at a premium of between 50 and 80 cents to the spot London prices in Singapore, unchanged from last week, with light selling from Indonesia and Thailand. India was on the sidelines.

"Surprisingly, the market is calm with only light selling. I reckon gold has broken the recent high and everyone is likely to look at US$1,300. Therefore, they will not rush in to sell in bulk," said a physical dealer in Singapore.

"India was buying physical gold before the price moved higher. I guess it's going to be quiet for India today." Gold may form a peak around US$1,300 per ounce or rally more explosively over the next four weeks, as per its wave pattern, according to Wang Tao, who is a Reuters market analyst for commodities and energy technicals.

Demand in India picks up during the festive season, beginning with Raksha Bandhan in August and lasting through November with Dhanteras being the single-biggest gold buying day. Weddings also stir up more demand for the metal.Reuters

source: Brunei Times

Monday, January 17, 2011

Is gold a good hedge for inflation, exchange-rate risks?

Gold ingots from various countries are displayed at the Ginza Tanaka gold jewellery shop for the Tokyo Gold Week exhibition in Tokyo in October. Picture: AFP

Monday, December 28, 2009

AS I walked through the airport in Dubai recently, I was struck by the large number of travellers who were buying gold coins. They were not reacting to Dubai's financial trouble, but rather were joining the eager rush to own gold before its price rises even further. Such behaviour has pushed the price of gold from US$400 an ounce in 2005 to more than US$1,100 an ounce in December 2009.

Individual buying of gold goes far beyond the airport shops and other places where gold coins are sold. In addition to buying coins minted by several governments, individuals are buying kilogramme gold bars, exchange-traded funds that represent claims on physical gold, gold futures, and shares in gold-mining companies that provide a leveraged position on the future price of gold.

And gold buyers include not just individuals, but also sophisticated institutions and sovereign wealth funds. Recently, the government of India purchased 200 tons of gold from the International Monetary Fund.

Many gold buyers want a hedge against the risk of inflation or possible declines in the value of the dollar or other currencies. Both are serious potential risks that are worthy of precautionary hedges. Although inflation is now low in the US, Europe, and Japan, households and institutional investors have reason to worry that the low interest rates and the extensive creation of bank reserves could lead to inflation when economic recovery takes hold. And the declining value of the dollar down more than 10 per cent against the euro in the past 12 months is a legitimate cause of concern for non-US investors who now hold dollars.

But is gold a good hedge against these two risks? Will gold maintain its purchasing power value if inflation erodes the purchasing power of the dollar or the euro? And will gold hold its value in euros or yen if the dollar continues to decline?

The short answer is no on all counts. The dollar price of gold does not increase with the US price level. And the value of gold does not increase in dollars to offset the fall in the value of the dollar relative to the euro or the yen.

Consider first the potential of gold as an inflation hedge. The price of an ounce of gold in 1980 was US$400. Ten years later, the US consumer price index (CPI) was up more than 60 per cent, but the price of gold was still US$400, having risen to US$700 and then fallen back during the intervening years. And by the year 2000, when the US consumer price index was more than twice its level in 1980, the price of gold had fallen to USabout $300 an ounce. Even when gold jumped to US$800 an ounce in 2008, it had failed to keep up with the rise in consumer prices since 1980.

So gold is a poor inflation hedge. Moreover, the US government provides a very good inflation hedge in the form of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). A 10-year inflation-protected bond will not only provide interest and principal that keep up with the CPI, but also now pays a real interest rate that is now slightly more than one per cent. And, if the price level should fall, a newly issued TIPS bond will return the original nominal purchase price, thus providing a hedge against deflation. Of course, investors who don't want to tie up their funds in low-yielding government bonds can buy explicit inflation hedges as an overlay to their other investments.

Gold is also a poor hedge against currency fluctuations. A dollar was worth ¥200 in 1980. Twenty-five years later, the exchange rate had strengthened to ¥110 per dollar. Since gold was US$400 an ounce in both years, holding gold did nothing to offset the fall in the value of the dollar. A Japanese investor who held dollar equities or real estate could instead have offset the exchange rate loss by buying yen futures. The same is true for the euro-based investor who would not have gained by holding gold but could have offset the dollar decline by buying euro futures.

In short, there are better ways than gold to hedge inflation risk and exchange-rate risk. TIPS, or their equivalent from other governments, provide safe inflation hedges, and explicit currency futures can offset exchange-rate risks.

Nevertheless, although gold is not an appropriate hedge against inflation risk or exchange-rate risk, it may be a very good investment. After all, the dollar value of gold has nearly tripled since 2005. And gold is a liquid asset that provides diversification in a portfolio of stocks, bonds, and real estate.

But gold is also a high-risk and highly volatile investment. Unlike common stock, bonds, and real estate, the value of gold does not reflect underlying earnings. Gold is a purely speculative investment. Over the next few years, it may fall to US$500 an ounce or rise to US$2,000 an ounce. There is no way to know which it will be. Caveat emptor.

Martin Feldstein, a professor of economics at Harvard, was chairman of President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisors and president of the National Bureau for Economic Research. Project Syndicate

source: Brunei Times

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Kenapa HARUS simpan EMAS?

Membuat pelaburan semaksima mungkin

jana simpanan anda ke arah yang lebih selamat dan berNILAI

80’an harga emas RM30/gram,

Kita kata emas itu mahal! Kita tak mampu


90’an harga emas RM80/gram,
Kita kata emas itu mahal! Kita tak mampu juga
2010 harga emas CECAH RM160/gram,
Memang emas itu mahal! Tapi kita masih kata, kita tak mampu!
Jadi BILAkah masanya kita MAMPU?,
bila masanya kita HARUS katakan kita PERLU simpan EMAS?
Tanya diri anda sendiri dan buat kira-kira anda sendiri. Sekiranya anda beli pada tahun 90’an dengan harga RM80/gram dan pada 2010 anda jual dengan harga 160/gram?! Itu kalau anda pegang 1 gram (sebesar pasir). Cuba mulakan dengan 20gram dengan nilai lebih kurang RM3k, bayangkan nilai 20gram itu cukup 1 tahun yg akan datang sahaja. Bayangkan pula 10 tahun nilai emas yang disimpan. Setiap hari kita masih belum terlambat untuk bertindak kerana emas senantiasa bernilai dimata dunia.
Mulakan dengan menyimpan 1 bulan 1 dinar (anggaran RM660 , 2010)
atau sudah cukup perhiasan diri, kenapa tidak simpan gold bar/coin 20gram (anggaran RM3k, 2010)

source: http://pondokburok.tripod.com/dinar/